Chart Watch: Heaven Help Us, Katy Perry Is Back

     A week after Eminem's "Not Afraid" became the 16th song to debut at No. 1 on the Hot 100, Katy Perry and Snoop Dogg make "California Gurls" [sic] the 14th song to debut at No. 2.  The single sold 294,000 copies in its first week and is ranked 31st on the radio chart.  I thought for sure Perry would be a one-hit wonder after the miserable "I Kissed A Girl", but she just won't go away.  Her new track sounds like a Britney Spears B-side reject.  That's a bad thing.

      Let's take a look at the 13 other songs to make their first chart appearance in the runner's up slot and see what "California Gurls" has to look forward to.

1. Mariah Carey - "Always Be My Baby" (96)
2. Bone Thugs-N-Harmony - "Tha Crossroads" (96)
3. Notorious B.I.G. - "Hypnotize" (97)
4. Boyz II Men - "Four Seasons of Loneliness" (97)
5. Mariah Carey - "My All" (98)
6. Ruben Studdard - "Flying Without Wings" (03)
7. Bo Bice - "Inside Your Heaven" (05)
8. Fall Out Boy - "This Ain't A Scene, It's An Arms Race" (07)
9. David Archuleta - "Crush" (08)
10. Black Eyed Peas - "I Gotta Feeling" (09)
11. Miley Cyrus - "Party In The U.S.A." (09)
12. Taylor Swift - "Today Was A Fairytale" (09)
13. Artists for Haiti - "We Are The World 25" (10)
14. Katy Perry - "California Gurls" (10)

     We'll leave out "Gurls" to do our statistical analysis because who knows how the song will fare in the coming weeks.  Out of the 13 remaining songs, six of them, or 46 percent of them eventually became No. 1 hits.  So, that means Perry has about a 50/50 chance of scoring her second chart topper, right?  Wrong.

     The six No. 2 songs that moved up to No. 1 are "Always Be My Baby", "Tha Crossroads", "Hypnotize", "Four Seasons of Loneliness", "My All", and "I Gotta Feeling".  Notice anything about them?  The first five songs that achieved this feat are the first five songs to also move up to No. 1.  Basically, after 1995 when Billboard tweaked chart rules so that songs had the potential to debut high, a handful did, and a few barley missed the mark but were still able to go No. 1 a week or so later. 

     When Ruben Studdard became the first artist to debut at No. 2 in five years, he was also the first artist to debut at No. 2 and not eventually reach No. 1.  He started a streak that only the Peas have managed to overcome with "I Gotta Feeling".  So technically Perry has a 50/50 chance of going No. 1, but given the chart's recent history, it's probably not going to happen.  What's more likely is "California Gurls" is going to drop out of the top five completely.We can hope, right?

     Meanwhile, last week's aforementioned No. 1, "Not Afraid", drops down to No. 6 leaving Usher and Will.I.Am's "OMG" to reclaim the top spot.  The entire top five this week has one thing in common.  They all feature a feature.  In addition to the top two, the No. 3 spot is "Airplanes" by B.o.B. feat. Hayley Williams, at No. 4 is "Nothin' On You" by B.o.B. feat. Bruno Mars, and at No. 5 is "Break Your Heart" by Taio Cruz feat. Ludacris.  It feels like the 00's, doesn't it?

     At No. 8 is Lady Gaga's "Alejandro" which gives the pop star seven straight top ten hits.  Expect the track to move up next week after the video's premier.

1. "OMG" - Usher feat. Will.I.Am (second week at No. 1)
2. "California Gurls" - Katy Perry (debut)
3. "Airplanes" - B.o.B. feat. Hayley Williams
4. "Nothin' On You" - B.o.B. feat. Bruno Mars
5. "Break Your Heart" - Taio Cruz feat. Ludacris
6. "Not Afraid" - Eminem
7. "Your Love Is My Drug" - Ke$ha
8. "Alejandro" - Lady Gaga
9. "Rude Boy" - Rihanna
10. "Hey Soul Sister" - Train